In December 1998 this column opened with the following advice: Buy your Champagne and sparkling wine now...for the year 2000!"

    It went on to comment on predictions of shortages of upscale, bottle fermented, effervescent wines and to make a couple of easy predictions:

    Prediction #1: More sparkling wine will be sold and consumed in the year 1999, culminating with New Years Eve, than has ever before been consumed in history.

    Prediction #2: Champagnes and sparkling wines of all kinds (except the really inexpensive bulk process stuff selling for $4 to $7) will never cost less than the cost right now (mid-December 1998), until Jan. 2, 2001.

    I hope you listened to me last December, but if you didn't, pay attention now. This is your last warning.

    If you are planning big parties, or are doing lots of Champagne entertaining (a fall wedding perhaps?), do not wait til November or December to buy your bubbly. It will cost you more and there will be less selection.

    Several of the "luxury cuvees" such as Dom Perignon, Roederer Cristal, Perrier-Jouet "Fleur de Champagne" and Taittinger "Comtes De Champagne" are already scarce as hen's teeth, having been snapped up and hoarded by large luxury hotels, cruise lines, resorts and top rated restaurants.

    But do not despair. Those highly rated luxury cuvees sell for more than $100 a bottle, and most folks will be just as happy with sparklers that sell for $30 or less.

    If you simply must have a bottle from that region in France entitled to be upper-case Champagne, keep in mind that 10 top brands sell 90 percent of the Champagne sold in America. But there are literally scores of fine Champagne producers with names less familiar, and many of them will be showing up in stores here for the first time.

    And if you're happy with lower-case champagne, that is sparkling wine made from the same grapes, utilizing the same process of bottle fermentation, but made in the U.S. and elsewhere, you can add any number of additional selections.     And delicious sparkling wines are made from other grapes in Italy, Germany, Spain and Australia.

    So the truth is there is not likely to be a real shortage of bubbles come New Years, but there very likely will be a shortage of fashionable labels and big name brands, especially at the very top of the line.

    So what's your strategy at this point? If you simply have to have a Dom Perignon or other big name, start searching now, because those wines will become even more scarce and more expensive the closer we get to Dec. 31st.

    If you need large quantities of bubbly for parties or special events between now and the end of the year, decide what you want and buy it now. Even middle tier and American bubblies may become more expensive before this self-fulfilling forecast of champagne shortages plays out.

    And don't count on much relief after Jan. 1, 2000, because producers and merchants will start all over again with promotions for the "real" millennium which comes Dec. 31, 2000. So be prepared for a whole additional year of hype and predicted shortages.

    Most good wine merchants will have broader than usual selections of sparklers starting about October 1. But if you're looking for the broadest selection or some unusual labels, the two largest selections of Champagnes and sparkling wines on the West Coast are to be found at D&M Liquors in San Francisco (415) 346-1325 and Wine Expo in Santa Monica (310) 828-2969 or e-mail: wineexpo@earthlink.net.

    California bubblies that may be in short supply later this year include "J," Schramsberg, Mumm Napa, Roederer Estate, S. Anderson and Gloria Ferrer.

    Old reliables such as Korbel, Domaine Ste. Michelle and Domaine Chandon should be available throughout the season. I'll be reviewing more bubblies than usual this fall to help with last minute selections for procrastinators.

SPARKLING WINE OF THE WEEK

    Thornton NV Millennium Cuvee ($35) Unquestionably the most underrated champagne producer in California. It's not even available in all markets. (Thornton Winery 909-699-0099) Bottled in 1993, that means that even though it has no vintage date it is primarily from the 1992 vintage. It was left "en tirage" (in the bottle, on the yeast) for six years. Only recently disgorged it is simply wonderful. Yeasty, toasty, nutty, rich, full-mouthed, kind of cidery, old champagne flavors. My kind of bubbles. It's a blend of 50 percent Chardonnay, 22 percent Pinot Noir and 28 percent Pinot Blanc. Track it down. Rating: 96/84

BEST BUY
WINE OF THE WEEK

    Etchart 1996 "Rio de Playa - Argentina" Malbec ($7) Malbec is one of the five major Bordeaux red grape varieties and it is often used as a blending grape in France and California. But there's something about this grape in Argentine soil. There, it tends to make better wine than either Cabernet Sauvignon or Merlot and is more popular with the locals as a result. The fact that it is not as well known here is one reason it can be sold at such bargain prices. This example is a delicious red with mostly berry flavors and hint of something floral (violets?). At once rich and mouthfilling and yet velvety soft. It is a wine that will appeal to Merlot fanciers and might well appeal to folks who think they don't like red wine. Case purchases highly recommended. Rating: 89/96

   

O.C. WINNERS 

We still have a supply of the official awards book from the Orange County Fair Commercial Wine Competition, the largest all-California wine judging in the world. Send $7 (includes postage) for the 140 page book to: OC Wine Winners, P.O. Box 1598, Carson City, NV 89702 (800) 845-9463.

   

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Wines are scored using a unique 100 point system. First number rates quality; second number rates value.